The Relationship Between Exchange Rate-Interest Rate and Stock Return in Turkey: An Empirical Analysis
Author(s):
Mehmet Şentürk, Engin Dücan
Volume:
5
Number:
3
Year:
2014
Page:
67-80
ISSN:
1309-2448
Abstract
In this study, interest rate and exchange rate dynamics and their impact on stock returns were examined in Turkey between the periods of 1997:01-2013:05 with ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests, impulse-response and variance decomposition analysis build upon VAR model and Granger causality analysis. Accordingly, exchange rate and interest rates affect stock returns are negative for about three months. Here, interest rate on stock returns, rather than the exchange rate is effective. In other words, while increase the interest rate and exchange rate, stock return are diminishing. However, stock return, are more sensitive to changes in the interest rates relative to exchange rate. In addition, there are unidirectional causality relationships from exchange rate to stock returns and from interest rate to exchange rate.
Keywords:
Stock returns, interest rate, exchange rate, VAR, Granger causality
Output gap is defined as the difference between the potential output and actual output. There are several approaches used in the literature to estimate output gap. With this study it is aimed to obtain alternative output gap estimations for Turkish Economy, considering the constraints of approaches that are used in the literature. With this aim, output gap is estimated using two methods such as (1) Structural VAR (Sutructural Vector Autoregressive Model-SVAR) approach proposed in Blanchard and Quah (1989), and (2) Modified Hodrick Prescott Filter based on ARIMA model proposed in Kaiser ve Maravall (2005). These methods are compared to the most frequently used HP filter method in the literature. The output gap estimations are compared in terms of their actual inflation prediction power considering that output gap estimation is an essential input in structuring price stability policy. As a result it can be asserted that output gap estimated by SVAR method produces more successful results in predicting actual inflation.
Keywords:
Output gap, Phillips curve, inflation forecast, modified HP filter, SVAR
Real exchange rates influence the competitiveness of tradable goods produced in a country, and thus the latter’s external balance. In the short-run, real exchange rates are influenced by real, as well as monetary variables. With a view to maintain their competitiveness in international markets, exporters are expected not to prefer overvalued local currencies. Thus, the conventional wisdom suggests that the interests and lobbying power of exporters may be directed to the policy makers towards a healthier external trade and current account balance. This article studies the effect of import dependence and profitability/branding levels of export firms on their real exchange rate preference. A simple partial analysis model shows that high import dependence may tilt exporters’ preferences towards overvaluation, rather than equilibrium or undervaluation of the real exchange rate. The model also implies that this “unpleasant real exchange rate arithmetic” may trigger a vicious circle involving an increasing preference for overvaluation leading to an even higher import dependence. Intrinsic profitability/brand equity of exporters, may partially reverse this preference for overvaluation; so this anomaly may rather relate to relatively less developed economies.
Keywords:
Real exchange rate, trade balance, external balance, beggar-thy-neighbor, brand equity
Title of Article:The Mediating Role of Interpersonal Deviance on Effects of Emotional Labor to Job Performance and Intention to Quit
Author(s): Memduh Begenirbas, Abdullah Calıskan
Volume: 5
Number: 2
Year: 2014
Page:109-127
ISSN:1309-2448
Abstract
In this study, the effects of service employees’ job performance and intentions to quit on their displays of emotional labor are examined. Also, the mediating role of interpersonal deviance on these effects are also observed. For this purpose, data are obtained and analyzed from 403 private service employees’ working in Ankara. The relations and effects between variables are presented by correlation and regression analyses. The validity of scales are measured with structural equation model. According to the findings, it is seen that employees’ emotional labors have significant effects on their job performance and intention to quit the job. Particularly, it is found that while job performances of employees who act surfacely are low, but their intentions to quit are high. It is observed that interpersonal deviance has negative contribution to the employees’ job performance, but positive contribution to the intention to quit. And also, coming through that interpersonal deviance has partial mediating role between emotional labor and job performance and intention to quit. Due to the findings of this study, recommendations are given for the managers of service sector to recruit and maintain productive and effective service emplooyees.
Keywords:Emotional Labor job performance, intention to quit, interpersonal deviance.
Title of Article:Critical Review of Organizational Learning
Author(s): Ozlem Yasar Ugurlu, Duygu Kizildag
Volume: 5
Number: 2
Year: 2014
Page:95-107
ISSN:1309-2448
Abstract
The existence of positive literature on organizational learning has been remarkable since 1970s’. The literature has frequently put emphasis on the positive impacts of organizational learning such as creating knowledge, increasing capacity, improving performance, developing talent and providing competitive advantage. Furthermore, it has been stated that organizations implementing organizational learning practices, have structures which employees have continuously been learning and developing their capacities. In recent years, unlike the existing studies emphasizing the positive outcomes of organizational learning, it is noteworthy that there are also studies looking at the concept of organizational learning from critical perspective. In critical studies it has been questioned that whether organizations really learn, whether there is an organizational structure in which organizational learning constantly occurs and also whether there is a demand for continuously learning or not. The conceptual framework of this study is composed of related literature review of organizational learning and learning organization, and accordingly the organizational learning concept has been evaluated from a more critical perspective. In this study, examining the organizational learning concept with a critical view, it has been analyzed the unexpected outcomes of organizational learning from five different aspects such as suspect of reciprocity, resistance, barriers to learning, forgetting and unlearning.
Keywords:Organizational learning, learning organization, unexpected outcomes, barriers to learning, forgetting.
Title of Article:Employee Perceptions of Corporate Reputation and Impact of The Perceptions on Organizational Pride, Organizational Commitment and Job Satisfaction: A Study on the East Marmara Region Plastic Packaging Industry
Corporate reputation accepted as one of the strategic sources is corporate assets which add value to firm and has long-term benefits. Due to the increasing importance, in the recent years, corporate reputation has been an interesting subject for academicians along with the business world. The aim of this study is to examine how employees perceive the corporate reputation of the enterprises operating in plastic packaging industry and the impact of these perceptions on organizational pride, job satisfaction and organizational commitment as well. Questionnaire prepared in this context was applied to 273 employees. The package programme of IBM SPSS STATISTICS 20 was used in analyzing the data and in order to reveal relations among variables, the factor analysis, correlation and multiple regression analysis was benefited from. Research results have showed that dimensions forming corporate reputation were perceived differently by employees. The employees have believed that is attractive the businesses with goods and services produced however, they have doubts about adequacy of social responsibility activities of the company. Also when evaluation report of plastic packaging sector was analyzed, it was observed there is a similar perception in this ground and employees care about it. The results of research have showed working environment dimension of corporate reputation have affected the attitudes, like job and wage satisfaction and organizational commitment on the one hand, executing social responsibility activities of businesses increases organizational pride and organizational commitment on the other. A negative effect was observed on wage satisfaction dimension of businesses with produced goods and services of corporate reputation.
Title of Article:Testing of Value Relevance of Accounting Measures Based on IFRS in Borsa Istanbul Equity Market
Author(s): Hikmet Ulusan, H. Ali Ata
Volume: 5
Number: 2
Year: 2014
Page:61-78
ISSN:1309-2448
Abstract
This study is to examine whether firms listed on “Borsa Istanbul Equity Market” have shown in the value relevance of accounting measures presented according to International Financial Reporting Standards and any difference in the value relevance specific to the firm features for the period 2009-2011. This research is based on Ohlson’s (1995) price regression model which assumes there is a linear relationship between stock price and shareholders’ equity book value, and income. Furthermore, the method of panel data analysis has been used. According to the findings, it has been identified that shareholders’ equity book value and net income or comprehensive income are value relevance for the firms. Additionally, the findings have indicated that, the value relevance of accounting measures based on International Financial Reporting Standards has shown difference in the features specific to the firm such as being multinational or not, the level of free float ratio, reporting comprehensive income or not except from firm size.
Keywords:International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), Accounting Measures Value Relevance, Features Specific to Firm, Panel Data Analysis.
Title of Article:The Analysis of the Long-Run Relationship Between Oil Consumption and Real GDP in Turkey Through Johansen Co-Integration Method
Author(s): Resat Ceylan, Seda Baser
Volume: 5
Number: 2
Year: 2014
Page:47-60
ISSN:1309-2448
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a long run relationship between oil consumption and real GDP in Turkey during the period 1965-2011 or not. If there is any relationship between these variables, to determine the direction of this relationship. For this purpose, the Johansen-Juselius Co-integration Method (1990) is used together with the Error Correction Model. According to the findings, there is one co-integration relationship between the series. Error correction mechanism works and the direction of the relationship is from oil consumption to real GDP. This result is important as of it demonstrates that Turkey has been depended to energy.
Title of Article:An Empirical Analysis of the Relations among Consumer Expenditures, Consumption Credits and Consumer Confidence in Turkish Economy
Author(s): Ibrahim Arisoy, Cengiz Aytun
Volume: 5
Number: 2
Year: 2014
Page:33-45
ISSN:1309-2448
Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship among consumer credits, interest rates, consumer confidence and consumption expenditures in Turkey by using the Toda-Yamamoto (1992) Granger-causality approach and regression analysis over the period 2005:1-2012:8. The empirical results based on the causality test show that consumer confidence, interest rate and consumer credits play an important role in explaining and predicting household consumption expenditures. Furthermore, the ordinary regression results reveal that there are statistically significant positive relations among consumer confidence, consumer credits and household consumption expenditures in the Turkish economy.
Title of Article:Factors Affecting Tax Compliance of Taxpayers: The Role of Tax Officer The Case of Istanbul and Canakkale
Author(s): Nilgun Serim, Betul Inam, Dilek Murat
Volume: 5
Number: 2
Year: 2014
Page:19-31
ISSN:1309-2448
Abstract
The need for tax revenue is increasing day after day, state needs to raise its service quality in order not to lose the tax payers, but to gain them. Especially the tax officers and their chiefs who are in direct relationship with the tax payer should have good relations with all taxpayers, empathize with the taxpayer, treat equally to each taxpayer and motivate the taxpayers regarding conformity with the taxes. In this study, a survey was conducted among the tax officers employed in the Revenue Administration of Canakkale and Istanbul, and from the perspective of them, a correlation analysis of the relations between the taxpayer, the tax officer and the chief of the tax officers, was carried out with statistical techniques including Mann-Whitney U test and Kruskal-Wallis H test
Keywords:Tax compliance, tax administration, Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis H test.
