| Article Information |
| Journal: |
Business and Economics Research Journal |
| Title of Article: |
Sustainability of Social Security Policies in Turkey: Cointegration Analysis with Multiple Structural Breaks |
| Author(s): |
Halim Tatlı, İsmet Göçer |
| Volume: |
6 |
| Number: |
3 |
| Year: |
2015 |
| Page: |
87-111 |
| ISSN: |
1309-2448 |
|
| Abstract |
| In this study, sustainability of social security policies in Turkey was analyzed by using 1989-2013 period annual data and 2007:M01-2014:M05 monthly data from by means of unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) and cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki (2012) and it was determined that there is a cointegration relationship between the series. Long-term cointegration coefficients were estimated by FMOLS and it was found that social security policies are sustainable in the weak form in Turkey. It was found that around 70% within 1989-2013 period and around 78% within 2007-2014 period of social security expenditures were met by income of social security institute. It was seen that sustainability of social security system has slightly improved in recent years. |
| Keywords: |
Social security system, sustainability, multiple structural break analysis |
|
| JEL Classification: |
H55, I18, P23 |
|
